This blog post analyzes the international tensions caused by the THAAD deployment and its impact on the Korean Peninsula. It also examines the possibility of a new Cold War and the positions of the involved nations.
Recent conflicts have intensified the international community’s focus on weapons. Long ago, North Korea launched missiles and conducted nuclear tests in succession. China also imposed economic sanctions on South Korea, including export bans on its own products. The international community, through UN Security Council resolutions, restricted exports of crude oil and processed goods to North Korea, applying pressure that seemed to signal the start of a new Cold War era centered on the Korean Peninsula. The reasons for this situation include North Korea’s persistent nuclear tests and the controversy surrounding South Korea’s deployment of THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense). While internal conflicts over THAAD deployment persisted within South Korea, China and the United States also engaged in a silent battle. However, while most people know THAAD is controversial, they seem unclear on exactly what it is. What is THAAD that it causes such turmoil in the international community?
THAAD stands for Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, a missile defense system developed by the U.S. company Lockheed Martin. It is an anti-aircraft defense system designed to intercept enemy ballistic missiles in mid-air, consisting primarily of launchers, a radar, and THAAD missiles. The battery and radar are typically mounted on transport vehicles like trucks or trailers, while the missiles are loaded into the battery for use. A basic THAAD unit operates one radar and six batteries.
The radar uses the AN/TPY-2 radar, known to have a detection range of approximately 1,800 km radius. However, this does not mean THAAD itself can intercept missiles 1,800 km away. Due to the curvature of the Earth, ultra-long-range missiles are obscured by the horizon and cannot be detected by radar unless they reach extremely high altitudes. Consider the Earth’s cross-section: at around 60 degrees latitude, the land near 30 degrees latitude is blocked by the horizon, making it invisible. This helps illustrate the concept. Furthermore, considering the missile’s fuel capacity, durability, and strike precision, the actual intercept range is considerably narrower.
A battery is the location where THAAD missiles are launched; a single battery can carry eight THAAD missiles. Because the battery is vehicle-mounted, it might be mistaken for a weapon that moves and attacks like a tank. However, THAAD is a regional defense system and does not move frequently; the vehicle-mounting facilitates deployment and redeployment and enhances firing stability. The price for one THAAD battery set is approximately $1.13 billion.
The THAAD missile is essentially the core component of the system, employing a method where it directly collides with the ballistic missile, using kinetic energy to detonate the missile in mid-air. The price for a single THAAD missile is about $8.2 million, and it possesses characteristics distinct from conventional missiles. Let’s examine the process of THAAD intercepting a target, the characteristics of the THAAD missile, and its overall operation using the example of a THAAD missile launch.
First, the radar detects an ascending flight object. This stage is called the ‘ascent phase’. During this phase, the radar sends a signal to the control center but does not immediately intercept. During the subsequent ‘midcourse phase,’ the radar continuously monitors the flight object. Once the object enters the interceptable range, the control center can issue an intercept command. This phase is called the ‘terminal phase.’ Upon receiving the intercept command in the terminal phase, the THAAD missile is launched toward the flight object. The THAAD missile is equipped with a receiver that receives information provided by the ground radar and guides it toward the flight object. The THAAD missile continuously increases altitude, ascending to high altitudes where air resistance is minimal. While auxiliary wings or tail fins can be used at low altitudes to alter trajectory using air resistance, they cannot be employed at the high altitudes where THAAD attempts interception. Therefore, THAAD missiles lack auxiliary wings. Instead, they utilize propulsion devices, similar to rockets, mounted on the missile’s sides to adjust its course. As it nears the target, the THAAD missile begins autonomously tracking the target using its onboard infrared sensor. At high altitudes, reduced atmospheric scattering makes infrared tracking easier. Conversely, at low altitudes, friction with the air causes the missile’s surface temperature to rise, making it difficult to distinguish its own emitted infrared signature from that of the target, thus reducing accuracy. This characteristic is why the THAAD missile has become a dedicated high-altitude weapon. Subsequently, the THAAD missile collides directly with the target, detonating it.
If THAAD is deployed for air defense, does that mean there are no other air defense systems besides THAAD? Of course not. South Korea currently operates the Patriot PAC-2 for interception and plans to add additional defense systems like the PAC-3 and L-SAM. However, these defense systems are fundamentally designed to shoot down aircraft and only perform ballistic missile interception as a secondary function. Consequently, their interception capability is limited, allowing them to shoot down targets only at relatively medium-to-low altitudes, specifically up to 2,560 km, compared to THAAD. In other words, while the current air defense system can intercept short-range missiles flying at relatively medium to low altitudes, it is difficult to intercept intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) descending at speeds of Mach 10 to 15 from altitudes of hundreds of kilometers. For example, assuming a ballistic missile is descending at Mach 10, the time it takes to fall from an altitude of 60 km to 25 km is a mere 12 seconds. Furthermore, missile defense systems fundamentally attempt interception at high altitudes. If that fails, they attempt interception at medium altitudes. If that also fails, they attempt interception at low altitudes. In other words, THAAD is not the first introduction of a missile interception system; it serves to strengthen and supplement existing defense systems.
Why is there so much controversy surrounding the introduction of THAAD? If it were merely for local defense, it wouldn’t have drawn such widespread societal attention. This attention stems from both international and domestic factors. Externally, the US, whose capital primarily funds the THAAD deployment, shows significant interest. Beyond South Korea’s local defense, it appears the US intends to counter missiles from North Korea and China targeting its own territory. North Korea reacts sensitively because the more South Korea builds its self-defense systems and the stronger the ROK-US alliance becomes, the less diplomatic advantage it can gain from the threat of its missiles. China, on the other hand, continuously expresses displeasure as US influence grows in its vicinity and the US effectively places a means to contain it right under its nose. Furthermore, the strengthening of the ROK-US alliance is also likely unwelcome from China’s perspective. Domestically, land issues arose as residents living in the THAAD deployment area had to relocate away from the surrounding zone. Furthermore, information spreading about the THAAD radar’s electromagnetic field being highly harmful to the human body amplified public resentment. Additionally, since the THAAD deployment conflicts with the Sunshine Policy, supporters of the Sunshine Policy toward North Korea are also voicing strong opposition.
THAAD, a system designed to defend against high altitudes not covered by existing defense systems, has been fully deployed in South Korea and has effectively entered operational use. It is a defense system where the radar detects enemy missiles, and then a missile is launched from a battery to directly track and intercept the enemy missile. However, significant controversy remains over whether the THAAD deployment was the right decision. This is because various factors are at play, not just the addition of a defense system, but also the power struggle with North Korea, China, and the United States, the international community’s perspective, debates over health impacts, and resident opposition. To analyze these factors and rationally form one’s own opinion on the current issue, an accurate understanding of the subject these factors surround must come first.
