In this blog post, we will examine the prediction techniques and design processes used by designers to safely design marine plants even under extreme natural conditions.
Can we predict the next 1,000 years? Of course, accurately predicting all the changes and events that will occur over a 1,000-year period is extremely difficult, if not nearly impossible. In fact, it is often challenging to even anticipate events that will occur tomorrow. Despite the rapid advancement of science and technology, we still do not have the ability to accurately predict the future. However, there are people whose job is to predict the next 1,000 years. They are marine plant designers.
A marine plant is a large-scale facility that produces oil and gas from the sea. Recently, with the depletion of onshore oil reserves, offshore oil reserves are gaining attention, and the role of marine plants is becoming increasingly important. To fully extract the resources from an offshore oil field, an offshore plant must be operational for at least 30 years. During this time, it must withstand strong winds and rough waves while minimizing the impact of severe weather changes and the marine environment.
The amount of oil produced by an offshore platform in a single day can reach trillions of won, making its stability directly linked to the profitability of oil companies. Uninterrupted operation is essential, and any unexpected shutdown due to unforeseen waves could result in astronomical losses for the company. Therefore, accurately predicting the height of waves that may occur in the environment where an offshore platform is installed is of utmost importance. This is where the concept of design wave height comes into play.
Marine plant designers predict the maximum height of waves that occur once every M years before designing the plant. Here, M years refers to the probability of occurrence once every 100, 500, or 1,000 years. This prediction is a critical factor in determining how long the facility can operate safely at sea.
Marine plants are typically designed to withstand waves that occur once every 100 to 1,000 years. This varies depending on the shipowner’s requirements, and design standards are set differently depending on the project. However, predicting design waves is not a simple task.
Since humans lack the ability to predict the future, marine plant designers use past data to predict the future. In this process, historical weather patterns and observation records play an important role. The process of determining design wave heights is similar to learning about the future through history. In other words, by analyzing records of waves that have occurred in the past, we can predict the maximum height of waves that may occur in the future.
The specific method for calculating design wave heights is as follows. First, measure the height and number of waves that have occurred in the area where the marine plant will be installed over a certain period of time. Based on this, calculate the probability of each wave height occurring. For example, if a 12-meter-high wave occurred 12 times out of 10,000 waves, the probability is 0.0012.
By calculating the probability of occurrence for each wave in this manner, it is possible to estimate the height of a wave that occurs once every 1,000 years. In actual design processes, predictions are not made based solely on observed data. Various marine observation records accumulated over decades, climate models, and even AI technology are utilized to predict future weather changes. Additionally, the unique environmental characteristics of the sea area where the marine structure will be installed are also considered. For example, in extreme environments like the Arctic Ocean, where unusual waves or weather phenomena that are not typically experienced can occur, more cautious design is required. The prediction work of marine plant designers goes beyond simple design. If they fail to accurately predict wave heights, the plant could suffer significant damage, potentially leading to serious environmental disasters such as oil spills.
Additionally, the inability to secure marine resources stably could inflict significant shocks on the global economy. Therefore, their efforts to predict conditions over a 1,000-year period are not merely for corporate profit but are closely intertwined with the future of the Earth.
Ultimately, the role of marine plant designers is to prepare for extreme situations that may occur once every 1,000 years. Without their thorough predictions and preparations, the development of marine resources would have been significantly delayed, and as a result, we might have faced crises such as energy shortages much sooner.
