This blog post examines various perspectives on whether global warming is a crisis caused by human activity or part of natural climate change.
According to the dictionary definition, global warming refers to the phenomenon of rising average temperatures on Earth’s surface. While warming phenomena have been observed multiple times since Earth’s formation, the global warming currently attracting worldwide attention refers to the rapid rise in average temperatures beginning in the late 19th century. Many point to the use of fossil fuels as the primary cause of this rapid temperature increase, citing as evidence that the use of fossil fuels like oil and coal since the Industrial Revolution has increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. According to the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), comparing late 19th-century and current global average temperatures shows a rise of approximately 0.6°C. This temperature increase is causing drastic changes in natural ecosystems, including land and oceans, altering habitats for numerous plants and animals and leading to environmental problems such as many species facing extinction. Furthermore, melting glaciers and rising sea levels are altering coastlines, putting islands like the Maldives at risk of submersion, prompting urgent warnings. Various institutions and experts assert that while warming trends up to the early 19th century were merely natural cycles, human activities have driven warming since the late 19th century, demanding countermeasures.
However, Fred Singer and Dennis Avery, authors of 『Unstoppable Global Warming』, directly refute these claims. The authors point out that the negative phenomena attributed to global warming are actually exaggerated and represent occurrences that could have been observed before. They argue that the global warming the world currently faces is a cyclical phenomenon, just like before, and is entirely natural.
The basis for their argument is as follows. First, the authors assert that sea level rise is not occurring. While many experts claim that global warming will cause sea levels to rise, submerging islands and leading to numerous disasters, they explain that actual satellite observation data shows sea level rise due to global warming is far less significant than the figures reported by environmental organizations like the IPCC and the EPA (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency). While the IPCC and EPA data could be derived by considering only the melting of glaciers when the Earth’s average temperature rises, the melting of glaciers increases atmospheric moisture evaporation, leading to more clouds and consequently the formation of new glaciers and permafrost. Ultimately, by scientifically proving that the volume of glaciers is maintained to some extent by the ocean’s circulation currents, the authors emphasize that they have not selectively chosen data reflecting a specific trend. Furthermore, the authors refute experts’ claims using the example of the sinking Tuvalu region. Experts assert that Tuvalu is sinking due to rising sea levels, but satellite observations have confirmed that this is actually the result of land subsidence, not sea level rise.
The authors also refute the possibility of rapid global cooling. While many believe global warming leads to rising average temperatures, they argue this is incorrect. Instead, they explain that as global warming accelerates, heat transfer via ocean currents becomes more difficult, causing temperatures in tropical regions to continue rising while polar temperatures decrease. Experts predict that these changes will ultimately revert most regions of the world to an ice age climate, leading to catastrophic consequences such as the collapse of agriculture and massive population decline. They argue that this process will proceed rapidly, considering historical records showing temperatures dropping by about 27 degrees Fahrenheit within a few years. However, according to the authors, ocean currents have actually increased steadily during the recent warming period. This indicates no problems with the ocean’s heat circulation. When simulations based on this fact were run to predict future outcomes, the likelihood of such events occurring was found to be nonexistent. According to simulation research from the Hadley Centre, the future ocean heat circulation showed a trend of increase, not decrease. Therefore, there will be no dramatic changes such as abrupt climate shifts caused by warming or a 10-degree rise in average temperature within a decade. The authors instead point out that such expert claims are merely a means to secure research funding.
Finally, the authors also addressed the abnormal weather phenomena we are currently experiencing. Every summer, we encounter squalls and frequent showers typically seen in tropical climates. Abnormal weather events, including squalls and hurricanes, are occurring worldwide. Experts claim these phenomena are consequences of global warming, but the authors counter that what we call ‘extreme weather’ is merely a repetition of events that have historically always occurred. In other words, the cycle of extreme weather phenomena is intertwined with the cycle of warming phenomena. Since climate phenomena arise from regional differences in sunlight exposure over time and seasons, they inevitably correlate with warming phenomena. They state that since records exist showing these phenomena occurred previously, the claim by experts that abnormal weather is caused by global warming is not valid.
The authors argue that the phenomena currently believed to be occurring due to global warming, and those potentially occurring, are either not caused by global warming or are phenomena that are not actually occurring. The authors’ argument does not deny global warming itself, but rather the denial of the severe situations claimed to result from warming. They refute the assertion that some of these situations are related to global warming and claim to have presented sufficient evidence to support their position. However, the book does not explicitly state that global warming itself is not occurring, and the statistical data appears insufficient, necessitating supplementation. Therefore, the author, who agrees with the authors’ position, aims to strengthen their argument by addressing these shortcomings.
The author discovered that many experts share the same perspective and have also argued that global warming is a fiction. Experts urging alternatives to global warming are ultimately using it as a political tool to curb carbon dioxide and fossil fuel use. The data presented by institutions and experts claiming the severity of global warming has counterexamples. These entities assert that the Earth’s annual average temperature is rising, shortening winters, and causing ice to freeze 5.8 days later and melt 6.5 days earlier. They emphasize that glaciers continue to melt, pointing out that since 1966, the snow cover area in the Northern Hemisphere has decreased by 5% annually, Arctic summer ice has decreased by 7.4% compared to a decade ago, and Arctic sea ice area has decreased by 2.7%. However, this data is merely biased toward specific claims. Other data indicates that Greenland’s average temperature has actually declined since 1937, and the peripheral ice sheets around Antarctica are spreading cooling. Furthermore, the global average temperature actually dropped by 0.008°C between 1987 and 1998. Contrary to claims that melting glaciers are destroying habitats and endangering species in the polar regions, data also exists showing that polar bear populations have increased fivefold since 1975. A supporting Fox News article states that Arctic sea ice increased by 60% in 2013 compared to the previous year. Furthermore, Fyfe et al. (2013) point out that the warming trend has slowed considerably, to the extent that it could be considered a cyclical phenomenon.
Considering these facts, it becomes clear that the arguments currently supporting global warming are biased. A comprehensive analysis of the data reveals no clear evidence of ongoing global warming. The column even states that the claim of increased greenhouse gases, specifically carbon dioxide, due to fossil fuel use is also incorrect. It argues that carbon dioxide constitutes only 0.00127% of the Earth’s atmosphere and thus has no impact on the greenhouse effect. Research by Craig D. Idso et al. (2013) further supports this argument by revealing no correlation between temperature changes over the past 150 years and carbon dioxide emissions from human activities. The column’s author interprets the reason for claiming global warming is occurring, despite its absence, as a political agenda. The author also states, like the book’s authors, that scholars claiming global warming is occurring are merely doing so to secure research funding.
As mentioned earlier, the evidence that global warming is actually occurring is unclear. All climate data can be interpreted either in support of global warming or against it. In this regard, there are also those who view the global warming debate from a neutral perspective. Those holding a neutral stance argue that the global warming debate is fundamentally tied to scientific uncertainty. In 2004, climatologist Oreskes published a paper in Science magazine to demonstrate that global warming is a clearly existing phenomenon, leading to a consensus among many climatologists. This sparked public interest in the issue of global warming, and the debate intensified. However, as mentioned earlier, some data does not prove global warming, and it was revealed that certain experts used biased data. In 2009, emails exposing IPCC climate scientists to have interpreted and manipulated data with unclear trends in extreme ways resurfaced the global warming debate. Ultimately, the global warming debate arose from collusion among some experts who disregarded scientific uncertainty. In reality, claims and judgments about global warming can only be made through global statistics and scientific analysis. From this perspective, the argument that global warming is not occurring can be based on the lack of validity in the data claiming it is happening.
In conclusion, the global warming described by experts is not as severe as we perceive it to be. The data experts use to claim global warming is occurring is biased, and the phenomena claimed to be caused by global warming are either entirely natural occurrences or simply do not occur. We are currently in the midst of Earth’s cyclical climate fluctuation process, and we are merely living in a period corresponding to a warm phase.
